By Theo Loxley  |  paradza.com

Published: April 7, 2026  •  Updated: April 7, 2026  •  6 min read

In the last four weeks, my gas bottle went from $173 to $193. No warning. No email. No explanation on the receipt. Just a higher number at checkout, like it had always been that way.

Eleven per cent. In a month!

That’s not a rounding error. That’s not a seasonal blip. That’s an additional $240 more per year on a single essential item with zero notice and zero explanation.

For households already stretching every dollar, this is the kind of increase that quietly breaks budgets. Not with a crash. With a slow, silent squeeze that you only notice when you’re staring at the numbers.

And the worst part? This is probably just the beginning.

What happened to my gas bottle is not a WA anomaly. It’s a symptom of something playing out in kitchens, driveways, and shopping receipts right across the country.

Australian petrol prices hit a record high of AUD $2.30 per litre as of 30 March 2026, the highest level since GlobalPetrolPrices.com began tracking Australian data in 2016. LPG prices in Sydney are sitting at 113 cents per litre, with upward pressure building across all fuel types.

These aren’t just numbers on a petrol station sign. They flow directly into the cost of food on your table, the delivery surcharge on your online order, and the quote from your tradie.

The ACCC - Australia’s competition watchdog is so concerned it has already issued legal notices to distributors across WA, SA, QLD, and the Northern Territory, demanding they justify sizable fuel surcharges being levied on deliveries. The ACCC has also granted an urgent interim authorisation to the Australian Institute of Petroleum to coordinate fuel supply management in response to the crisis.

Translation: regulators are on alert. And that’s not a reassuring sign.

Commonwealth Bank’s weekly spending data confirms the trend. Transport spending has risen sharply as a share of total household card spend, with fuel accounting for roughly two thirds of those transport costs. As CBA’s Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen put it: “Higher fuel prices are the most immediate transmission channel from the Middle East conflict to the Australian economy.”

Invisible inflation. That’s the phrase that keeps coming to mind. The prices rise, the statements arrive, but no one sends you a letter explaining why your living costs just went up.

To understand why your gas bill jumped, you need to understand a chokepoint 12,000 kilometres away.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, carries roughly 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply. When conflict involving Iran escalates, tankers get rerouted, insurers get nervous, and suppliers start pricing in risk. That risk flows into every barrel of oil. And every barrel flows into every litre of fuel sold at a servo in Busselton.

Global crude oil benchmarks topped USD $116 per barrel in late March 2026, driven by US-Israel tensions with Iran. CBA economists are modelling scenarios based on oil at USD $120 per barrel through to the end of June.

Here’s the critical structural problem: Australia imports more than 90 per cent of its refined fuel. We produce gas. We export gas. But we import the refined products that heat our homes and fill our tanks.

As Josh Runciman, lead gas analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), told ABC News: “Since 2015, we’ve seen domestic gas prices effectively triple. Low-cost gas in eastern Australia is becoming depleted, and now we’re developing more expensive gas fields.”

The Middle East conflict didn’t create Australia’s energy vulnerability. It just ripped the bandage off.

Energy analysts are not mincing words. Commonwealth Bank’s economics team has revised Australia’s inflation forecast upward, now projecting headline CPI of around 5.4 per cent by mid-2026, significantly higher than earlier estimates. Trimmed mean inflation, the RBA’s preferred measure, is expected to peak at 3.8 per cent before easing.

Market volatility is already being priced in. The OECD has issued a snap update lifting its Australian inflation forecast for 2026, directly citing higher oil prices and disruption to global energy markets.

Australia’s National Reserve Coordinator has confirmed that national reserves sit at around 39 days of petrol and just 29 days of diesel, well below the International Energy Agency’s recommended 90 days of import cover. Energy Minister Chris Bowen has noted that 53 ships carrying 3.7 billion litres of fuel are en route, but industry voices and farmers are still reporting dry stations and supply uncertainty in regional areas.

Energy prices don’t stay in their lane. They spread.

The chain reaction is predictable and fast:

The Australian fuel crisis of 2026 is not just a petrol station problem. It is a structural squeeze on everything that requires energy to produce, store, or move. In a country as geographically vast as Australia and a state as remote as WA, that means almost everything.

ACCC Chair Gina Cass-Gottlieb has also warned that some businesses are using fuel surcharges as a cover for across-the-board price increases. “Businesses are reminded that they need to make decisions about prices and levies independent of their competitors. Coordination of prices by competitors is a serious breach of competition laws,” she said.

That warning should be read by every household trying to understand why their bills are going up faster than the fuel price alone can explain.

That’s not a rhetorical question. It’s a genuine policy failure.

When prices rise on discretionary items, streaming services, gym memberships, eating out consumers can make a choice. But gas to cook. Fuel to get to work. Heating for a child’s bedroom. These are not optional purchases.

A recent CBA spending survey found 19 per cent of Australians cut dining out, 15 per cent delayed holidays, and 60 per cent changed their travel habits in response to higher fuel prices. Low-income households have been hit hardest, with energy poverty rising as heating and cooking costs compound transport pain.

The essential goods squeeze is made worse by the complete absence of advance warning systems for consumers. When your supplier increases their price by 11 per cent, there is no mandatory notice period. No email. No letter. Just a different number next time you pay.

The fuel excise cut will offer some relief at the servo. But it does not apply to bottled LPG. It does not reverse the 11 per cent increase already absorbed by households. And it expires in three months.

The honest answer is: it gets worse before it gets better.

CBA economists have outlined three scenarios depending on how the Middle East conflict evolves. In the central scenario oil at USD $120/barrel through June, then easing to $80 Australian economic growth slows to 1.6 per cent by late 2026, household spending contracts, and unemployment edges higher. Inflation is expected to remain elevated well into 2027.

Electricity prices, while currently proposed to fall by up to 10 per cent from July 2026 under the AER’s draft Default Market Offer, carry a significant caveat. AER Chair Clare Savage has already warned: “It is a very uncertain time, and we are seeing increases in international coal and gas prices. We could see increases rather than decreases.” The final determination is not due until May.

For regional WA households, where LPG is often the primary energy source for cooking and heating, and where there are no piped gas alternatives the exposure is acute. There is no switching option. There is no cheaper alternative. There is just the bottle, and whatever price the supplier decides to charge this month.

LPG prices in Australia are deregulated, meaning suppliers can set them based on market conditions. The current spike is driven by rising global oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict, supply chain disruptions, and increased domestic demand. Suppliers are not required to give advance notice of price changes.

Yes. While this article reflects a WA experience, price pressure is being felt nationally. Fuel prices have hit record highs across all major cities. The ACCC is monitoring surcharges in WA, SA, QLD and the NT specifically. Regional and remote households face the highest exposure due to limited alternatives.

The federal government announced a fuel excise cut of 26.3 cents per litre from 1 April 2026, applying to unleaded petrol and diesel for three months. A domestic wholesale gas price cap of $12 per gigajoule is also in effect for new contracts. The ACCC is investigating businesses using fuel surcharges as cover for broader price increases.

CBA economists are projecting headline inflation of around 5.4 per cent by mid-2026, with energy prices a significant contributor. The AER’s proposed electricity price reductions from July 2026 may provide some relief, but this is not yet confirmed and depends on how global energy markets evolve over the coming months.

Practical steps to consider:

Related reading on Paradza.com

→ The healthcare affordability crisis and what it means for Australian families

→ Delayed care in Australia: the hidden cost of putting off medical appointments

→ Telehealth access in regional WA: a lifeline or a gap?

→ NDIS system pressure and the WA families caught in the middle

→ Global cost-of-living trends: how Australia compares in 2026

Sources & Attribution